Ciaran’s Peculier [sic] Blog

A view of the world from an Irish hole

Month: August, 2008

The end of Zimbabwe’s crisis?

The news coming from Zimbabwe seems to be good; a power-sharing deal seems on the verge of being hammered out between Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai. It may slip by unnoticed, as the attention of the international community is taken up by the repulsive actions of those in the Kremlin who are nostalgic for the old Soviet Union.

But really, are people so naive as to think that such a power-sharing deal can possibly end Zimbabwe’s woes? The deal seems to be that Morgan Tsvangirai will become executive prime minister while ;President Bob’ holds onto the title of ceremonial head of state. Mugabe is one of the most machiavelllian leaders in Africa. Words and formulas have always meant what he wants them to mean, so while he might sign up to the idea of a ceremonial presidency shorn of all executive power, the reality is that he will exercise as much power and influence as he wants to. For one thing his allies, like Emmerson Mnangagwa and the thugs in the security services will not have it any other way. Mugabe and friends have been sheltered from hyper-inflation and the destruction of the economy, and it is hard to see how any government can seriously address the country’s woes yet allow these goons to pursue their charmed lives.

Maybe Mugabe knows that, even if he chooses to do nothing more than enjoy the trappings of a cerem0nial presidential role, nothing (even including the miraculous) can help the country. A comparison between the Zimbabwean economy and a human being would see a patient who has been seriously wounded in an armed robbery, suffered multiple injuries in the succeeding car crash, been run over again and again, serially gang-raped. and then left to die. In fact the patient should be dead but is just comatose, having lost huge amounts of blood. Oh and the patient has not as yet received any sedation.

A divvying-out of cabinet jobs can’t solve the country’s huge problems. Will a power-sharing arrangement have anything to say about the disastrous land confiscations program? How can the country’s problems be even approached when the agricultural sector, which was a major contributor to GDP, remains unproductive in the hands of “war-veterans” and other friends of Mugabe? The central bank may stop printing money, but this won’t end the spiral of inflation. So really there will be nothing to keep people in the country, apart from the fear of being attacked by xenophobic gangs in South Africa.

Mugabe has always been big on rhetoric and knowing how to motivate his supporters. Maybe, just maybe, he is preparing to sell them out. The war veterans and other die-hard Mugabe loyalists may find that the man for whom they have been happy to despoil their country is in turn quite content to be rid of them in return for a nice, comfy job as president, which will allow him to enjoy his twilight years as a pampered patriarch rather than a pariah.

Let’s have a coup

Events in Mauritania have obviously had a contagious impact in west Africa. The BBC has reported that the government of Guinea-Bissau has foiled a coup attempt that was planned for Thursday. It was to be launched by the head of the country’s navy, Rear-Admiral Bubo Na Tchuto. It came to light when the power-hungry sailor  ’phoned around his colleagues looking for support. Not only did the head of the army politely refuse but he then shopped him to President Vieira, who promptly arrested him.

The country has been going through a lot of political instability lately. The parliament has been dissolved and a new prime minister appointed. Not dissimilar to events in Mauritania. These events have no doubt been watched with interest by the drug lords who use Guinea-Bissau as a staging-post for cargoes from South America to Europe. There is no evidence that they were behind the coup attempt, but the nation’s tiny navy is at the forefront of Guinea-Bissau’s attempts to bloc drug shipments. Another take on the events is that admiral Na Tchuto got get up with a lack of support in the navy’s efforts from the government.

A family firm

The military coup in Mauritania seems to have caused more outrage amongst the international community than in Mauritania itself. The outrage of President Abdellahi’s daughter who hasn’t been able to speak to her father since he was arrested,, (and doesn’t even know where he is), is understandable. The generals who have seized power have presented themselves as the true arbiters of democracy in the country. They can claim that it was elements of the military who usshered in the country’s democratic experiment. Those whom they have replaced were, in contrast, not true democrats but simply greedy individuals who tried to yoke the country’s institutions to the narrow and selfish interests of their own family. Indeed one of the numerous parliamentarians who has come out in favour of the coup has claimed that President Abdellahi had turned the country into a family firm, where all important, influential and lucrative posts were given to relatives.

The problems of jobs being awarded not on the basis of what you know but who you are is prevalent in all countries, including the so-called liberal and democratric Irish Republic. It is often frustrating to observe the ease with which family members and relatives of politicians, whether in national or local government, acquire “good” jobs. Yet everyone knows that those who are often most bitter about such nepotism would be just as liable to introduce such a system benefitting their own members if granted the opportunity to replace that which exists at present. In this regard poor Mauritania and relatively affluent Ireland are very similar countries and societies. closer than some might like to admit.

Mauritanian analysis

Today’s edition of Le Figaro (August 7th( carries an interview with Alan Antil of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). Antil is a specialist on Mauritanian affairs and his comments provide some excellent insights into the background of the coup d’etat. It is entitled “La democratisation de la Mauritanie entre parentheses”.

No place for the Khaki order in Africa?

The leaders of the coup in Mauritania have announced plans for a “relaunch” of democracy in the country through elections which they promise will be free and fair. The subtext of the announcement is of course that the democracy which had been effective since the polls of last year was not to their liking. After the coup of August 2005 which launched the country’s first democratic elections the army leaders announced early on that they had no intention of standing in the polls and that their role would be to supervise the transition leading to elections. It seems that General Abdel Aziz does not intend to pursue such a hands-off policy, regardless of whether he stands in subsequent elections or not, and that whoever comes out victorious from these polls must govern in partnership with the army.

The response of the international community to the coup has been predictable – full of sound and fury, but signifying sweet FA. The EU has threatened to suspend aid to the country, a move which would only harm ordinary Mauritanians.

The response of the African political community has been more interesting. Many of today’s African presidents owe their positions to military coups, something which they might want to forget as they swap their military fatigues for business suits. Yet the tone has been unflinchingly condamnatory. Take the editorial in the Gabonese government paper L’Union, carried in part by Le Monde. “Nothing justifies the military coup led by the ex-chief of the Republican Guard … The crisis which affected the President’s party was not threatening in a dangerous manner the stability of the country … the presidential election of 2007 had been declared a model of democracy.”  In an analysis piece entitled: “Putsches and the Khaki order no longer have any place in Africa” the paper continues The thesis according to which it is only men in combat uniform who can save the country from chaos is no more than eye wash. … On the black continent the great speechless one (the army) must remain in its place from now on so as to be the great preserver of discipline and so merit citizens’ respect and sympathy.”

Update on the Mauritanian coup

The coup was launched by the Presidential guard, who arrested the president at his home and lead him to an unidentified location. The prime minister was arrested at around the same time at his office and brought to a nearby barracks where he is being held. The soldiers’ actions were prompted by the sacking earlier in the morning by the president of the head of the presidential guard, General Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, and the chief-of-staff of the defence forces, Ould Cheikh Mohamed Ahmed. Their dismissals were announced on national radio in the morning. Within hours the president had been taken into custody. National radio has been shut down and soldiers are apparently patrolling in front of the building. The earlier presidential decree has been quashed and a new council of state has been formed headed by General Abdel-Aziz.

According to Le Figaro, this is not General Abdel-Aziz’s first coup. He participated in the revolt of August 3rd 2005 which toppled long-time strongman Maaouyz Ould Sidi Ben Ahmed Taya and formed a part of the transition council which led the county between that coup and the holding of elections early in 2007. A parliamentarian has stated that the coup enjoyed the support of the majority of Mauritanians, and that the ousted government was an authoritarian regime which had marginalised the people.

The coup in Mauritania

Mauritania’s bloodless coup has taken a lot of people by surprise, not least President Cheikh Abdellahi and Prime Minister Ould Ahmed Waghf who were picked up within hours of the coup being started.

It seems to have been motivated by the president’s dismissal of senior army officers, and so it would appear at this stage not to have been politically or ideologically motivated. So it’s unclear what (if anyything) the coup signals for Mauritania’s internal or external policies.

Mauritania seemed to be on the rough track to a democratic future after years of autocratic military rule. However, democratic government has not really improved the lot of Mauritanians. Instead a handful of politicians, supposedly representing different shades of opinion( but no doubt only representing their own lust for gain) have squabbled endlessly. In answer to the question “What does regime change mean for the rank and file of Mauritania’s citizens?” we are sadly compelled to reply – nothing.

Mauritania is a vast country, though thinly populated. It is however terribly poor, a situation that exploitation of oil reserves will no doubt do nothing to alleviate. Like many nations in the Third World the country has recently been rocked by riots over the rising price of food staples. So maybe this coup will be significant; it will mark a response (though an ineffective one) to the spiralling cost of food which affects the world’s poorest citizens. The fact that it represents the replacement of a democratically-elected government by a military regime may also point towards the beginning of the end of Africa’s not-very-happy flirtation with western democracy.

What’s in a name?

The road between my house and Drumalee Cross in Cavan used to be a nice comfortable stroll for me in my pre-chariot days. Along its length ran a low wall, against which I could stand to observe the old football field, as well as the livestock there. Those days were not so long ago – certainly less than fifteen years’ ago. Now the low wall is gone, replaced by development and I can hardly make my way along a third of its length.

 

 

 

The first building is surrounded by some low steps. Low but impossible for someone in a wheel-chair like myself, and I can’t see any sign of a ramp. But the developer should not be accused of anything more than thoughtlessness perhaps. The body charged with ensuring accessibility is the local authority, Cavan County Council whose care and commitment to the lot of the disabled is well-known.

This is the home to the friendly Bubble Computers. They really are great. The other day my modem threw up its arse, but Gary from Bubbles replaced it and installed a new on in the space of a few hours. Well done!

Gary told me that the search is on for a new name for Hampton Court. I’d like to help here but I need the assistance of my readers in supplying suggestions. Now I’m being serious. I think that buildings should reflect the locality and environment of their location. In this way they can truly be embedded within the local community. So let’s have some serious suggestions please.

A pariah and his friends

Most people would agreed that President Robert Mugabe should be an international pariah. He has cynically impoverished a once rich nation while enriching himself and his cronies. He is no delusional madman, but a shrewd, dare I say Machiavellian operator, and he would not be able to do anything without well-placed friends.

The extent to which this pariah has been able to act with impunity in the face of international sanctionbs and condemnation comes in a report carried in this fortnight’s edition of Africa Confidential. An “Arms and the Men”  details investigations into payments in excess of £25m by British Arms company BAE to a British Virgin Islands’ registered company Kayswell Services, whose majority shareholder is arms-dealer John Bredenkamp. Bredenkamp is a major supplier of the Zimbabwean Defence forces and friend of Robert Mugabe. He is also known to be particularly close to Emmerson Mnangagwa, one of Mugabe’s most hard-line supporters.

Mugabe’s campaign against the country’s white farmers has often been marked by blood-curdling racism. The farmers have been portrayed as a greedy and selfish white minority lliving in the lap of luxury, who as a legacy of colonialism have nothing to contribute to modern Zimbabwe. But the reality is that many of the white farmers were not fantastically rich (or any form of rich). Their farms were often owned by banks and finance companies while they were dependant on the vicissitudes of global commodity prices. But Mugabe and his circle seem to have no difficulties hob-nobbing with mega-rich white businessmen such as Bredenkamp and Nicholas Van Hoogstraten. The reason for this apparent contradicition is that both groups have something to offer Mugabe & co that they crave. The white farmers had land, which could be handed out to ZANU-PF loyalists so as to bolster political control. The white businessmen have money – and lots of it, and you can be that it’s in dollars and pound sterling, not the fantastically denominated Zimbabwean dollar.

Resource curse

Without doubt Africa is the world’s poorest continent, in terms of money. Yet it has great riches, especially mineral, but the continent and its people have never been able to benefit from this. At first colonial exploiters stole from Africa, but then when Africa’s nations became independent, the larceny continued. A very small elite, usually closely related (often literally) with the countries’ rulers benefitted massively, salting their misgotten gains in bank accounts in Switzerland and New York. Their people meanwhile languished in extreme poverty, facing chronic malnutrition and disease, in societies denied even basic infrastructure. The result has been that those countries which have not been “blessed” with mineral resources, whileremaining very poor, have nevertheless seen economic and social improvements far in excess of those “enjoyed” by nations which, because of their mineral and hydrocarbons, should be rich, but aren’t. This wicked irony has been christened resource curse.

Some leading mining companies have started to counter resource curse, and are committing time and more importantly money into attempts to spread the benefits of natural resources among larger sections of the population. Unfortunately a fairly new player has joined the ranks of exploiters: the government of the People’s Republic of China and its parastatal procurement agencies. The unprecedented growth in the Chinese economy depends on huge resources of raw materials and fuels which cannot be supplied from domestic sources. As a victim of nearly two centuries of colonial exploitation one would expect mainland China to the threats posed to countries in the Third World to short-term exploitation, without giving anything tangible to these nations and their infrastructures. Nothing could be further from the truth. Deals are often reached in secret with governments, whose people can only watch with anger and dismay as the huge figures spoken of are ciphoned off and disappear into a small handful of well-placed pockets. Recently an agreement was reached between China and the land-locked nation of Niger worth $5bn for the exploration and exploitation of the nation’s oil reserves. This agreement was reached behind closed doors, and nobody knows its details or where and how the money is to be spent. The country’s people will however continue to suffer hardships such as drought, decimation of crops by locusts: all of which are being worsened by global warming.

The People’s Republic of China is now a major member of the club of neo-colonialists or “neo-cols”.

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