Ciaran’s Peculier [sic] Blog

A week after the coup in Mauritania, its leaders have started to reveal some of their intentions, as well as why it took place.

General Abdel-Aziz has said that, while he plans to hold transparent elections, he does not rule out being a presidential candidate himself.

When, three years’ ago,,General Vall seized power and set the country on the road to democracy, he made it crystal clear that he was not going to be a candidate for president and that he was going to take a back seat. This policy is now obviously viewed as a mistake by Gen. Abdel-Aziz (who was one of Gen. Vall’s associates in that coup). The idea of giving power to others is clearly seen as unacceptable, as is the option of ruling through civilian proxies.

So the soldiers launch a coup, call for elections in which the coup leader stands for president. He’s then elected, gaining a democratic imprimatur, and swaps his military uniform for a nice expensive business suit (or twenty).

The African Union plans to suspend Mauritania until a return to constitutional government. But thiis is the way many African presidents (and AU members)  have come to power – Yahya Jammeh in The Gambia, Blaise Compaore in Burkina Faso, and more recently Francois Bozize in the Central African Republic. It must be said that some soldiers make good presidents, such as Yoweri Museveni in Uganda and Alpha Toumare Toure in Mali. The latter led a coup against the authoritarian Moussa Keita and then retired, only to reemerge as a successful presidential candidate over a decent spell of time.

If General Abdel-Aziz decides to run in elections he is certain to win. For one thing he will have what’s referred to in the world of strategic management as “First-mover advantage”. He will set the date for the match, pick the venue and set the rules. He will also be able to dictate access to match facilities as he will control the media. In this regard it’s hard to see how these elections can be transparent, apart from being a transparent farce.