Ciaran’s Peculier [sic] Blog

The news coming from Zimbabwe seems to be good; a power-sharing deal seems on the verge of being hammered out between Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai. It may slip by unnoticed, as the attention of the international community is taken up by the repulsive actions of those in the Kremlin who are nostalgic for the old Soviet Union.

But really, are people so naive as to think that such a power-sharing deal can possibly end Zimbabwe’s woes? The deal seems to be that Morgan Tsvangirai will become executive prime minister while ;President Bob’ holds onto the title of ceremonial head of state. Mugabe is one of the most machiavelllian leaders in Africa. Words and formulas have always meant what he wants them to mean, so while he might sign up to the idea of a ceremonial presidency shorn of all executive power, the reality is that he will exercise as much power and influence as he wants to. For one thing his allies, like Emmerson Mnangagwa and the thugs in the security services will not have it any other way. Mugabe and friends have been sheltered from hyper-inflation and the destruction of the economy, and it is hard to see how any government can seriously address the country’s woes yet allow these goons to pursue their charmed lives.

Maybe Mugabe knows that, even if he chooses to do nothing more than enjoy the trappings of a cerem0nial presidential role, nothing (even including the miraculous) can help the country. A comparison between the Zimbabwean economy and a human being would see a patient who has been seriously wounded in an armed robbery, suffered multiple injuries in the succeeding car crash, been run over again and again, serially gang-raped. and then left to die. In fact the patient should be dead but is just comatose, having lost huge amounts of blood. Oh and the patient has not as yet received any sedation.

A divvying-out of cabinet jobs can’t solve the country’s huge problems. Will a power-sharing arrangement have anything to say about the disastrous land confiscations program? How can the country’s problems be even approached when the agricultural sector, which was a major contributor to GDP, remains unproductive in the hands of “war-veterans” and other friends of Mugabe? The central bank may stop printing money, but this won’t end the spiral of inflation. So really there will be nothing to keep people in the country, apart from the fear of being attacked by xenophobic gangs in South Africa.

Mugabe has always been big on rhetoric and knowing how to motivate his supporters. Maybe, just maybe, he is preparing to sell them out. The war veterans and other die-hard Mugabe loyalists may find that the man for whom they have been happy to despoil their country is in turn quite content to be rid of them in return for a nice, comfy job as president, which will allow him to enjoy his twilight years as a pampered patriarch rather than a pariah.